房价对货币政策传导的消费效应实证研究——基于SVAR模型

An Empirical Research on Consumption Effect of Housing Prices on Monetary Policy Transmission——Basing on SVAR Model

货币政策的房地产价格传导机制包含货币政策到房地产价格的传导和房地产价格到实体经济的传导两个环节。运用SVAR(结构向量自回归)模型,对货币政策变量通过房价作用于消费的传导过程进行实证研究,得出如下结论:从货币政策到房价的传导是通畅的,而房价到消费的传导并不通畅;房价作为货币政策的传导途径,存在一定的阻梗,总体传导效率不高。

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy for real estate prices include two steps, i.e. transmission of monetary policy to real estate prices, and transmission of real estate prices to real economy. By using SVAR （ struc- tured vector auto regression） model, an empirical study is made on the transmission process [hat monetary policy vari- ant plays a role in consumption through housing prices, drawing a conclusion that transmission of monetary policy to housing prices is smooth, while transmission from housing prices to consumption is not smooth; and that there are ob- struction phenomenon for housing prices as a transmission means of monetary policy and the total transmission efficien- cy is not good.