我国外汇储备适度规模研究——基于因素分析法的测算

Study on Moderate Scale of Chinese Foreign Reserve——Basing on Measurement through Element analysis Method

外汇储备规模适度性分析有很多方法,但这些方法均存在某些局限性。以因素分析法为基础,充分考虑外汇储备交易需求、预防性需求、盈利性需求和保证性需求等因素,重新构建适合我国的外汇储备适度规模模型并进行实证检验。结果表明,我国的外汇适度储备量远远低于实际储备量,我国的外汇储备存在过剩现象。

There are many methods analyzing whether foreign reserve scale is moderate, but there are limitations for all these methods. Based on element analysis method, such factors are taken into full account as foreign exchange reserve dealing demand, preventive demand, profitability demand, and guaranteed demand, etc. rebuilding a mod- el for moderate foreign exchange scale suitable for China and making an empirical test for it. The consequences sug- gest that the moderate scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserve is far less than real reserve volume, and there is an excess of foreign exchange reserve in China.