新农村建设中耕地保有量预测研究——以山东省济宁市为例

Studies on the Forecast Methods of Insurance Quantity of the Land in the Construction of the New Countryside of Jining City

在某一时期内,某一区域为了实现粮食安全的目标,耕地保有量必须达到一定的数量。因各地保有量不同,从而承担着不同的耕地保护责任。对耕地保有量进行准确预测,对于科学编制土地利用总体规划以及实施新农村建设具有重要的意义。基于此,本文采用供给法的两种算法对山东省济宁市的耕地保有量进行预测。并通过分析指出济宁市存在耕地保有量外部性问题。最后,针对耕地保有量外部性问题,提出了矫正方法和实现济宁市耕地保有量的对策措施。

In a period,a region in order to achieve the objectives of food security,its insurance quantity of the land must reach a certain critical mass.As a result of different insurance quantity,different region bears responsibility for different farmland preservation.Precisely forecasting insurance quantity of the land is of great significance to working out the scientific land use overall plan and carrying the construction of the new countryside into execution.Basing on which,the paper forecasts the insurance quantity of the land of Jining city by two algorithms of a law of supply.And through analysis,the paper indicates that the externality exists in land use of Jining city.Finally,in response to the externality of insurance quantity of the land,the paper raises rectification and countermeasures which can increase insurance quantity of the land of Jining city.