基于自适应跟踪法的沥青路面使用性能预测模型

The Model of Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Based on the Parameter Self-Adaptation Method

通过对沥青路面性能衰变方程的分析,得出方程中的寿命因子和形状因子是随着路龄动态变化的结论。针对路面性能曲线对2个参数的敏感度不同,将形状因子作为主要动态参数,采用改进参数自适应跟踪法进行预测;将寿命因子作为交通轴载的函数,建立优化双参数的路面性能预测模型,并利用某高速公路的历史数据验证模型的有效性。结果表明,该模型能够克服缺少历史数据的不足,客观反映路面近期性能状况。

Through analysis on the deterioration equation of asphalt pavement, the life factor and the shape factor are two dynamic parameters with the road age. Aiming at pavement surface effect curve having different sensibility toward the two parameters, taking the shape factor as the main influential factor, adopting modified parameter self-adaptation method to make prediction, life factor as function of traffic volume, establishing optimized two-parameter pavement function prediction model, and using the historical data of a highway to verify the validity, the results show this model overcomes the deficiency of data, and reflects the current function conditions.