预警机制对麻疹防控的效果研究

Study on the Effect of Measles Control under Early Warning System

[目的]探索预警机制在麻疹防控中的作用。[方法]收集攀枝花市2007年麻疹流行期间的防控资料,应用描述流行病学方法进行分析。[结果]通过实施麻疹预警和一系列防控措施,麻疹流行强度持续、迅速下降,也未因传统高发人群的聚集而引起暴发。[结论]在各种导致麻疹免疫空白人群存在的因素尚不能在短期内有效解决的情况下,建立起一套由政府部门牵头的、敏感、有效的预警机制,能有效控制麻疹流行,并避免暴发疫情的出现。但如何提高这一机制启动程序的时间敏感性和判断准确性尚待探讨。

[Objective]To explore the function of System in measles control. [Methods]Measles prevalence data in Panzhihua city in 2007 were collected, and analyzed with descriptive epidemiological method. [Results]The intensity of measles prevalence continue to descend, no outbreak happen even the susceptible people getting together. These may most profit from the carrying out of Early Warning System and the measurements of measles control. [Conclusion]Since we can＇t resolve all the problems that cause blank immunization,a set of sensitive, effective Early Warning System that is in charged by the government is much more necessarily. With this system we can control the measles prevalence effectively and the outbreak of measles can be avoided. But it still quite necessary to research how to improve the time sensibility and judgrnent correctness of the initialization routine.