信息化进程中国际体系与秩序特征探析

An Analysis of Characteristics of International System and Order in the Process of Informationization

人类文明正在从工业化社会迈向信息化社会,世界各国立足于不同的国情,秉持迥异的发展理念与施政方略,在国际舞台上共同演奏了民族国家竞争角逐、合作互惠、兴衰失衡并存的交响曲,共同造就了当代国际战略格局与世界秩序的全新态势。美国作为信息化浪潮的发源地与最为积极踊跃的推动者,赢得了信息化时代全球博弈的最大红利,依托厚重的经济基础和强大的军事实力,成为短期内难以逾越的单极霸权;而其他从两极格局中分离出来的诸强国以及为信息化、全球化浪潮所催生的多种国际行为体在把握机遇、发展实力、蓄势待发的同时,也于不同的领域与层次上对美国霸权形成一定的平衡与制约。单极主导、多元并存无疑成为步入信息化时代之初国际政治体系最显著的标志,但随着信息化浪潮在深度与广度上进一步拓展,在飞跃与调整的交替中不断前行,世界格局多极化、国际关系民主化、国际社会行为体多元化、从传统的"国家间政治"向世界政治乃至"全球政治"转变等趋势初现端倪,作为未来世界的可能性蓝图正逐渐呈现于世人眼前。从美国全球扩张战略的周期看,从20世纪80年代以来经过近30年持续的攻势态势,已经呈现出疲惫的征兆,在次贷危机和金融危机的影响下,美国很可能要进入一个战略休整期,美国在国际体系中的主导地位也将受到一定程度的削弱。

When human civilization steps from industrialized society to the information society, an the countries, basing on their different national conditions, upholding the very different ideas and attitudes of development and governance, together played a Symphony of nation- state competition, mutual co -operation, and the imbalance between the rise and fall. And they together created the new situation of contemporary international strategic configuration and world order. The United States. as the birthplace and the most active promoter of the informafionization wave, became the biggest winner of world polities in the information era. Relying on massive economic infrastructure and strong military power, the United States is now a unipolar hegemony which is insurmountable in a short term. Other powers, which are separated from the bipolar system, and a variety of international actors, which generated from the informatinnization and globalization wave, form a certain balance and restraint of the US hegemony as well as they grasp the opportunity to develop strength. Unipolar lead, with the coexistence of multiple actors undoubtedly becomes the most prominent logo at the beginning of the information era. However, with the infonnationization wave proceeds on in both depth and scopes and develops between leaps and adjustment, multipolarization of world configuration, democratization of international relatious , diversification of international community actors, and the transformation firm traditional ＂polities among nations＂ to world polities or even the ＂global polities＂ gradually emerge and all of them form the possibility of a blueprint for future world. From the strategy cycle of the global expansion of the United States, the nearly 30 years＇continuous offensive posture since 1980s has been showing signs of fatigue. Under the effect of the sub -loan crisis and financial crisis, the United States is likely to step into a strategy renovating Period, and its dominant position will be weakened to some extent.