论上海合作组织的发展前途——基于中俄战略构想比较分析的视角

On the Future Development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)——a comparative analysis of strategic concepts between Russia and China

战略利益决定战略构想。战略构想的相同或相近,体现了其共同或相似的战略利益。战略构想不同,是由其不同利益或利益分歧决定的。上合组织是否有前途,是否有生命力,从根本上来说取决于中俄两国战略构想是否一致或大体吻合。如果战略构想相差甚远,体现了其战略利益的背道而驰,那么建立在其上的国际组织是不可能有大的发展前途的。中俄关于上合组织的战略构想中,相同、相似或交叉之处远远大于或多于不同或分歧之处,说明上合组织虽然是一个新建的、年轻的国际组织,还很不成熟,很不完善,但上合组织是有生命力的,是有发展前途的。

Strategic interest determines strategic concept. Same or similar strategic concepts represent mutual or similar strategic interests. The divergence in strategic concepts is decided by the difference or disagreement in interests. Fundamentally speaking, the SCO＇s future and vitality depend on the similarity or the general correspondence of the strategic concepts of Russia and China. If the strategic concepts are totally different from each other,which indicates the disagreement in their strategic interests, than the international organization built on them is not likely to have a very promising future. In the Russia＇s and China＇s strategic concepts about the SCO, similarities, resemblances or intersections are much more than the disagreements and divergences, that means although the SCO is a newly founded and young organization, it is not so mature and perfect, but it has great vitality and a very bright future.