启东地区肝癌高危人群早期发病因素的Logistic回归分析

Logistic Regression Analysis on Early Affecting Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma(HCC)in High Risk Population in Qidong

对以往曾出现过ＡＦＰ低浓度阳性的肝癌高危人群进行了为期一年的前瞻性随访研究，根据基线危险因素水平、流行病学调查资料及随访结果拟合肝癌早期发病因素的Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归模型。结果表明对肝癌早期发病有显著影响的因素为血清ＡＦＰ、ＡＦＵ、γＧＴ、ＡＫＰ、ＡＬＴ浓度以及慢性肝炎史、肝硬化史、肝癌家族史等，其中仍以ＡＦＰ的作用最大，其次为ＡＦＵ、γＧＴ以及慢性肝炎病史。在控制年龄因素后，进入多因素Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归模型的变量为ＡＦＰ、ＡＦＵ、γＧＴ、慢性肝炎病史以及肝癌家族史，即对于３０～５９岁的男性ＨＢｓＡｇ携带者（高危人群）来说，随着上述各项指标的出现，其发生肝癌的危险性将明显增加。

 follow-up study was conducted in 158 high risk subjects who were once αfetoprotein(AFP) positive with low concentration from Sept.1995 to Oct.1996 in Qidong endemic area.The baseline of risk factors,epidemiologic data and followup results were used to fit the logistic regression model.The results showed that serum concentration of AFP,αLfucosidase(AFU),γglutamyl transpeptidase (γGT),alkaline phosphatase(AKP) and glutamicpyruvic transaminase(ALT),history of chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis,and family history of HCC were significantly related with the early development of HCC.Among these factors,the affection of AFP was strongest,the next was AFU,γGT and history of chronic hepatitis.After controling the affection of age,the variables that enter the multipal logistic regression model were AFP,AFU,γGT and history of chronic hepatitis and family histroy of HCC.It was indicated that the risk of HCC development would significantly increase in those high risk subjects(30～59 years old,male HBsAg carrier)when the occurrence of these factors above.