中日长期外贸顺差成因的异同性分析

Determinants of Persistent Trade Surplus of China and Japan's:A Comparative Analysis

中日两国在经济高速增长时期都出现了持续较长时间的贸易顺差。两国各自的贸易顺差的成因既有相同之处,又有诸多的不同。总地来说,制度因素是中国长期贸易顺差的最重要原因,而技术因素是日本长期贸易顺差的最重要因素。相对于日本,中国贸易顺差持续的时间并不长,且面临着诸多的不确定因素,对中国贸易顺差的前景盲目乐观是不适宜的。

There exists persistent trade surplus during the high - growth period of both China and Japan. Similarities as well as differences can be enumerated with regard to the causes of this phenomenon. In general, institutional factors play an important role for Chinese trade surplus while technological factors are the major determinants of that of Japan. The trade surplus of China, however, is comparatively shorter in time length and is challenged by more uncertainties. It＇s inadequate to take an over-optimistic view of the future trends.