基于繁殖规律的生猪市场供应模型

The Hog Cycle Model:Based on the Natural Law of the Breeding Pigs

生猪生产具有发散性蛛网效应的特点,目前市场的波动正在加剧之中。基于生猪繁殖的自然规律特点,构建了一个易于分析与预测的生猪生产模型。分析显示,目前的生猪市场正在酝酿一场新的危机。导致市场波动的根源在于及时、准确信息的缺失,致使养殖者对母猪盲目的补栏。

Based on the characteristics of the natural law of the breeding pigs, this paper established an easy to-analysis and forecast of the production model of hogs. The analysis shows that the current market is making a new crisis. The root of market volatility lies in lack of timely and accurate information, which in turn results in the blind production made by the farmers.