中国出境旅游业发展趋势分析

Research on the Trend of Development of Outbound Tourism in China

近年来,中国的出境旅游政策经历了一个由严格控制到逐步放松的调整过程,出境旅游产业发展迅速,出境旅游人数逐年递增。而对中国出境旅游的发展历程、发展原因、发展特点进行深入分析,有利于了解出境旅游业的发展现状与潜力。通过人均国民生产总值与出境旅游人次之间的回归时间序列模型对中国出境旅游的发展趋势进行预测,发现中国出境旅游人数随时间呈指数化增长,如果中国的经济保持目前的增长速度,到2020年出境旅游人次将达到1.2亿,将成为世界上最重要的旅游客源国。

In recent years, China＇ s outbound tourism policy has undergone an adjustment process from the strict control to the gradual relaxation, the outbound tourism industry has developed rapidly, and the number of outbound traveller increasing year after year. However, in order to explore the Chinag outbound tourism situation and potential, we need to deeply analyze China＇ s outbound tourism development process, the reasons and characteristics. Through the time - series and the regression model, we can know about the development of relation between the per capita gross na- tional product and outbound tourism, and it shows that the number of Chinese outbound traveller exponential growing by time. if Chinag economic growth maintain the current growth rate, which predicts that the number of Chinese outbound traveller will reach 120 million in 2020, and china will become one of the most important tourist countries.