新型油田产量递减模型的建立与应用

Building and applying a new decline model of oilfield production

迄今为止,对于递减阶段的油田产量预测来说,国内外主要使用的是经典的Arps递减模型,尤其是Arps指数递减模型。但是,Arps递减模型对俄罗斯萨马特洛尔和罗马什金油田并不适用,这两个油田的产量和生产时间数据在半对数坐标系上并不是直线关系,而是曲线关系。基于对概率统计中正态分布的研究,建立了新型的油田产量递减模型。通过萨马特洛尔和罗马什金油田的实际应用,表明本文提出的新型递减模型是正确的,而且要比Arps递减模型更具有代表性。

Up to now, the widely used models to predict declining production of an oilfield at home and abroad are Arps＇ decline models, especially his exponential decline model. But the application results of Arps models in Russia Samotlor and Lomashkin oilfields have indicated that these models are not applicable, because the relationships between production rate and time for the two oilfields are curvilinear, rather than linear, on a semi log coordinate system. Based on a study of normal distribution in statistical probability, a new type of decline model is developed for oilfields. Its application in Samotlor and Lomashkin oilfield has shown that this new model is correct and more representative than Arps＇ decline models.