湖北省沙洋县2000-2005年农村恶性肿瘤发病及其时间趋势调查分析

Incidence sequence and secular trend of malignant tumors in Shayang county of Hubei Province from 2000 to 2005

目的:回顾性调查湖北省沙洋县2000-2005年农村居民恶性肿瘤发病状况,了解该地区肿瘤发病构成特征和时间趋势,为进一步开展肿瘤人群研究提供科学依据。方法:经由系统培训的乡镇卫生人员收集沙洋县13个乡镇2000-2005年肿瘤发病资料,对该地区肿瘤构成、年龄、性别和地区差异进行分析,并进一步拟合发病率的线性回归模型,估计年度变化百分比(APC),进行时间趋势分析。结果:该县肺癌发病占总肿瘤的23.47%,居于首位,其次为肝癌(21.83%)和胃癌(6.82%);男性平均发病率大于女性,χ2=101.69,P<0.05;男性恶性肿瘤总发病率、肺癌和肝癌发病率的APC值分别为22.93%、34.15%和22.26%;女性恶性肿瘤总发病率、肺癌、胃癌、女性生殖器官及乳腺恶性肿瘤发病率的APC值分别为33.30%、42.10%、42.27%和56.76%,均有逐年上升趋势。沙洋县13个乡镇恶性肿瘤发病率差异有统计学意义,χ2=215.87,P<0.05,肿瘤顺位也不全相同。结论:沙洋县农村居民恶性肿瘤发病有明显的性别和年龄差异,不同地区恶性肿瘤发病也不同,6年间恶性肿瘤发病率呈上升趋势。

OBJECTIVE： To investigate the distribution and secular trend of malignant tumors among the rural population in shayang county of Hubei Province. METHODS：The information of new cancer cases in 13 towns of the county from 2000 to 2005 were collected. The characteristics of distribution and difference of incidence in the sex,age and towns were analyzed,and furthermore the annual percent change （APC） was estimated using linear regression model and the secular trend of incidence was analyzed. RESULTS： The first three of the malignant tumor rank were lung cancer, liver cancer and stomach cancer, accounting for 23.47% ,21.83% and 6.82% of total cancers. The average incidence rates of cancers were significant different between male and female,χ^2 = 101.69,P〈0. 05. The annual percent changes （APC） of incidence rates of total cancers,lung cancer and liver cancer were 22. 93% ,34.15% and 22.26% respectively in the male group. In the female group,APCs of total cancers,lung cancer,gastric cancer, genital organs cancer and breast cancer were 33. 30%, 42.10%, 42. 27% and 56. 76%respectively. The geographical distribution of cancers was also significantly different among the 13 towns, χ^2 215.87, P〈0. 05. CONCLUSIONS： The proportions of new cases of cancers are significantly different in gender, age and geographical areas in the study population. The total incidence of tumor indicates a rising trend during the past six years.