摘要
用击穿率描述机匣包容性，知识状态曲线表达击穿率评价结果。针对实际评价中有关知识和信息逐步完善的特点，运用贝叶斯理论，研究出一个动态递推的评价方法。解决了贝叶斯方法实用中难题：如何简易地确定先验的贝塔分布。
The case containment is described by the puncture rate, whose assessment result is represented by the state of knowledge probability curve. Considering the step by step improvement in the related knowledge and information, a dynamic and recurring method is advocated of assessing the containment with Bayes theorem and the solution is obtained to the problem in its practical application: how to set forth a prior Beta distribution.
出处
《航空学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第2期200-224,共25页
Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica
基金
航空科学基金
关键词
机匣包容性
贝叶斯估计
置信界限
击穿率
case containment, Bayes estimations, confidence limits, puncture rate, expert opinions, Beta distribution
