灰色灾变预测模型及其应用

Grey Model of Calamity Forecast and its Application to the Calamity Forecast

灰色系统是信息不完全系统，不少论文提出了“灰数”、“灰平面”、“灰色统计”等一系列全新概念，为不确定性，信息不完全数的研究提供了一种新的分析处理方法．灰色方法即是对一些离散的原始数据采用累加生成及其逆进行处理，使之转化为适合用微分方程等方法来建模的有序数列的新方法．本文使用双向差分方法建立了一种灾变预测的灰色预测模型，并对某地区历年来的旱、涝灾数据进行灰色处理，进一步预测到旱、涝灾情将再发生的时间．最后分析了灰色预测模型的拟合精度．

The grey system is a incomplete system of information.A new concept of grey number etc.is developed.A new analysis method is provided for the research of information and incomplete data.It is dealing with discrete raw data by using iteration addition generator method and converts to ordered sequence of number,namely grey method.A grey forecasting model for the calamity forecast is established in this paper by using duplex difference,and the application of this model is expounded by the forecast of drought and flood.At last,the fitting precision of grey forecasting model is discussed.