养老金结构与金融结构的相关性研究——来自典型OECD国家的经验证明

On the Correlation Between Financial Structure and Pension Structure——Empirical Evidence from Typical OECD Countries

为了更好地剖析新一轮养老金制度改革的条件和深层次原因,了解金融结构性因素在一国养老金制度改革中所发挥的作用,从金融结构的视角出发,研究养老金结构与金融结构之间的相关关系,探讨金融组织(金融中介机构和金融市场)在养老金系统中的功能及其演化。从宏观和微观两个层面,分别对养老金整体结构、私人养老金结构与金融结构的相关性进行了分析,并在宏观层面运用部分OECD国家面板(Panel)数据模型对金融市场发展与自治养老基金规模的相互关系进行了实证检验。通过研究发现:无论是养老金整体结构还是私人养老金结构,在很大程度上都取决于金融结构的发展状况,私人养老金结构同时还与养老金整体安排密切相关,而养老金制度改革将进一步促进金融结构以及金融机构之间竞争格局的演化。

In order to dissect the conditions and deep reasons of pension system reform and understand the role of financial structural factors in the reform,the paper probes the correlation between pension structure and financial structure,and the function and evolution of financial organizations(including financial intermediaries and financial markets) from the perspective of financial structure.From both macro and micro levels,the author analyzes the interrelation between overall structure of pension system and financial structure,and private pension structure and financial structure respectively.The positive tests concerning on the correlation between the development of financial market and the scale of autonomous pension funds is carried out through the Panel data models found by some OECD countries from the macro level.It is concluded that not only overall structure of pension system but also private pension structure,to a large extent,depends on the development of financial structure,that private pension structure is also closely related to the arrangement of whole pension,and the reform of pension system will further promote the evolution of financial structure and the competitive landscape among financial institutions.