天山云杉种群数量动态研究

Population quantity and structure dynamics of plant population of Picea schrenkiana

选择了15个设在天山地区25m×25m的样地,通过样地调查和数据统计,研究了天山云杉(Picea schrenkiana)种群的年龄结构、静态生命表,运用时间序列预测模型分析了种群数量动态。种群年龄结构分析表明,种群的年龄结构呈倒J型分布,个体数量主要集中在Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级(个体数量比例占82.70%),幼龄个体数量较多,中、老龄个体数量较少。种群生命表、亏损率曲线、存活曲线、死亡率曲线、生存函数曲线的分析表明:天山云杉有1个死亡高峰,出现在Ⅱ龄级的年龄阶段;存活曲线基本介于DeeveyⅡ和DeeveyⅢ型之间;引入生命表的几个函数能较好地说明种群的动态和结构变化。时间序列分析表明:在未来20、40、60、80、100、120和140年中,天山云杉种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群稳定。

Investigation and statistical analysis were conducted on 15 plots （25 m × 25 m） of Picea schrenkiana, which were arranged on Tianshan Mountains. We studied their age structures and static life tables. The population dynamics were predicted using time sequence model. The analysis of age structure of P. schrenkiana populations showed that all populations were fluctuated in upside down ＂J＂ shapes, with most individuals （82.70%） concentrated in the 0-40 year age class. Young individuals were dramatically abundant. By contrast, there were few middle and old individuals. The analysis of life table, the curves of lose rate, survival rate, mortality rate and survival function of the population showed that the population had a peak of mortality at Ⅱ age class, and survival curve of the population was between Deevey Ⅱ and Deevey Ⅲ. The functions used in static life table could explain the structure and dynamic of P. schrenkiana population well. Time sequence models predicted that young individuals would be relative rich, and population structure would be stable after 20,40,60,80,100,140 years in the future.