技术进步对就业影响的实证分析——基于辽宁1980年—2006年的数据

The Effect of Technical Progress on Employment and the Choice of Technical Progress Policy

技术进步是推动经济增长的动力,并且在经济增长中发挥越来越重要的作用,但它在促进经济增长的同时,也对就业带来了双重影响。本文结合1980年-2006年辽宁数据,运用索洛模型测算了历年的全要素生产率,用以度量广义技术进步,并从实证角度分析了技术进步对辽宁省就业总量及结构的影响。研究表明:技术进步对辽宁省的就业总量增长表现为就业挤出效应,但技术进步还能通过对产业结构变化的影响进而影响到就业结构的调整与变化。可通过发展适用技术、发展教育事业、重视中小企业的发展,以及鼓励科技创新等手段,抑制技术进步对就业增长的挤出作用。

Technical progress has become drive of economic growth, and it is playing more and more important roles in economic growth. On the basis of the analysis of technical progress reflected by the change in total factor productivity （TFP） which is estimated through Solow model by adopting provincial data from 1980 to 2006 in Liaoning , the paper explores the effect of technical progress and technical progress policy on employment and argues that, despite its aid to optimization of employment structure , technical progress exhibits a significant negative effect on employment growth which can be better eliminated by developing applicable technology, adding fiscal expenditure on education, paying attention to the development of SMEs and encouraging enterprises to innovate.