我国经济增长动力的区域差异分析

The District Difference Analysis about the Economic Growth Impetus of China

分清拉动中国整体与不同区域经济增长的主次因素,对于中国经济发展政策的制定有着积极的意义,而单从消费、投资和出口与GDP的比率不能充分说明问题。运用协整模型建立各因素与GDP的线性关系的方法,具体分析了各因素的变动对于中国经济增长的贡献大小,划分出具有说服力的影响中国经济发展的主次因素,并在此基础上提出推动中国经济发展的三点建议:(1)积极推动固定设备投资的同时,避免重复投资的发生;(2)完善各项社会保障措施,提高社会消费水平;(3)准确定位商品出口战略,协调好与各国的经贸关系。

Distinguishing the primary and secondary factors driving the economic development in the whole country and various regions has a positive significance to the formulation of our country＇s economic development policies because the ratio of the consumption, investment and exports to GDP is unable to provide a full picture of the issue. In the current paper, the linear relation between the contribution of various factors and GDP is established by use of the co-integration model. A concrete analysis is made on how much contribution made by the change of various factors to the economic growth of China. As a result, the primary and secondary factors affecting the economic growth of China are convincingly figured out. Furthermore, three proposals are put forward about promoting economic development： 1. avoiding investment duplication while actively promoting plant investment; 2. improving various social security measures and enhancing social consumption levels; 3. accurately positioning merchandise export strategies and coordinating economic and trade relations with all countries.