后奥运经济低谷效应问题辨析

Analysis of the Post-Olympics Valley Effect

后奥运经济低谷效应,是指由于奥运会前期过量投资以及过高的社会心理预期而导致的后奥运时期基础设施浪费、场馆闲置、奥运主办城市房地产价格下滑、股市下跌、局部或总体经济增速放缓,甚至局部或总体经济出现负增长的特定现象。该问题是近年来学术界研究的热点问题之一,特别是随着2008年奥运会的召开,对此问题的研究又呈现出了进一步的升温趋势。本文从分析后奥运经济低谷效应的概念入手,对奥运史上出现的后奥运经济低谷效应进行了全面回顾,分析了该现象的成因,并对2008年奥运会后可能出现的后奥运经济低谷效应进行了预测。研究表明,1984年以来的6届奥运会,除了1984年的洛杉矶奥运会和1996年亚特兰大奥运会没有出现明显的后奥运经济低谷效应以外,其余4届奥运会都毫无例外地受到了后奥运经济低谷效应的影响。后奥运经济低谷效应产生的原因较为复杂,主要与奥运会前期投资总量、主办城市原有产业结构、消费结构、主办城市原有的基础设施建设、主办国经济成熟度、主办城市、主办地区甚至主办国的经济总量密切相关。

The Post--Olympics Valley Effect refers to the phenomenon that some economies were hit by a post--Olympic economic downturn. The phenomenon was mainly caused by a dramatic investment increase or excessive social and psychological expected at the pre--Olympic stage. Normally, it will lead to a waste of infrastructure, facilities idle, the Olympic host city real estate prices fell, the stock market fell, in part or in overall economic growth Slow down after the Olympic Games. With the opening of 2008 Olympic Games the research of Post-Olympic valley effect is becoming a hot point. Starting with the concept analysis of the Post--Olympic valley effect, this paper conducted a comprehensive review of the reasons of the phenomenon. Research shows that since 1984 Olympic Games, post--Olympic yalley effect happened 4 times. The reasons caused this phenomenon is very complex. It is mainly related to host country＇s total economic output or GDP. However, the total investment in pre--Olympic Games, the host city＇ industrial structure and consumption structure, the economic maturity of the host country, host region and host city are closely related.