吉林省西部生态支撑能力与社会经济发展的动态耦合

Dynamic coupling of ecological supporting capability and socioeconomic development of west Jilin Province

利用协调发展模型和剪刀差方法,对1986—2004年间吉林省西部生态支撑能力[F(x)]和社会经济[F(y)]的耦合关系进行了分析.结果表明:研究期间,吉林省西部F(x)呈先下降后略有上升的趋势,而F(y)总体呈指数形式增长;受自然和人为因素影响,F(x)和F(y)具有明显的脆弱性;F(x)和F(y)的剪刀差α从1986年的4.93°下降到1996年的0.28°,后又上升至2004年的12.30°;1995—2004年间,吉林省西部由以损害F(x)促进F(y)发展的状态正逐渐向两者协调发展状态过渡,F(x)和F(y)的耦合协调度由轻度或濒临失调衰退类型转变为勉强或初级协调类型,但这种刚发展起来的初级协调状态仍存在较大的不稳定性;1995年后,α增长较快且协调度C波动强烈F(x)和F(y)冲突较强烈,研究区处于生态环境问题的多发期;相比单一的协调发展模型,与剪刀差方法结合可从发展状态和演变速率2个角度来表征F(x)和F(y)的相互作用,它既能反映两者发展的均衡程度又能反映两者的冲突强度,可更加全面和深入地探讨生态支撑能力和社会经济发展的耦合关系.

The coupling relations between ecological supporting capability [ F （x） ] and socioeconomic situation [ F（y） ] of west Jilin Province from 1986 to 2004 were analyzed by harmonious development model and scissor difference method. The results showed that in study period, the F（x） of west Jilin Province had a trend of decreasing first and slightly increasing then, while F（y） had an overall exponential increase. Influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors, both F（x） and F（y） had obvious vulnerability. The scissor difference α between F（x） and F（y） declined from 4.93° in 1986 to 0. 28° in 1996, and then increased to 12.30° in 2004. During the period of 1995 -2004, west Jilin Province gradually changed its traditional manner, i. e. , from increasing F（y） with the rapid degradation of F（x） to the harmonious development of both F（x） and F（y）, and the coupling degree of F（x） and F（y） changed from elementary or critical inharmonious to barley or elementary harmonious. After 1995, the scissor difference α increased with higher velocity, and the harmonious degree C also fluctuated obviously, illustrating an intensive antagonism between F（x） and F（y）. The study area was in the erupting period of various ecological problems, and at present, the high instability of elementary harmonious status still existed. Comparing with harmoni- ous development model alone, its combination with scissor difference method could reveal the cou- pling relations of F（x） and F （y） from the perspectives of development status and changing rate. This combination could reflect not only the equilibrium status but also the conflict intensity between F（x） and F（y）, and give more comprehensive and profound analysis on the coupling relations between F（x） and F（y）.