基于Logit模型的影响旅游者风险感知的要素判别研究——以四川“5.12”地震为例

A Study on the Factors about Tourism Risk Sense Based on Logit Model——A Case Study of Earthquake in Sichuan on May12

当旅游危机发生时,旅游者对危机的风险感知形成了目的地的负面旅游感知形象,从而决定了旅游者的旅游行为选择倾向,因此,判断危机事件对旅游市场的影响应从其对旅游者的风险感知影响开始。由于L og it模型计算结果既可解释又可对比,而影响旅游者风险感知的要素大多是抽象要素,为了便于各要素之间影响程度的对比和解释,以便确定影响旅游者风险感知的显著性要素,所以以L og it模型作为研究旅游者对危机事件风险感知的工具。运用L og it模型,对四川"5.12"地震进行实证研究,研究结论是此次危机事件中,影响旅游者风险感知的显著性因素主要是旅游者性别、对地震知识的了解程度、地震突发性、地震后果严重性、来自周围人群影响程度、政府表现等6个要素。

At the background of tourism crisis,risk sense of tourist forms the tourism sense image to destination,the tourism image has a decisive effect on tourism action of tourists,so it should be the first step to research the affect of tourism crisis to the risk sense of tourists.The calculated result of Logit model not only can be explained,but also can be compared.The factors that affect tourism risk sense are more abstract factors,for the conveniencison of compare and explain ation of effectual degree between every factor,so that assure which factors are marked factors to affect tourism risk sense of tourists,the Logit model is a better tool.The paper employs the Logit model,researches earthquake that had taken place on May 12 in Sichuan,and draws the conclusion that the factors of sexual distinction and the knowledge to earthquake and the character of cute happen of earthquake and the serious destruction of earthquake and the effect from the neighborhood and the degree of satisfied to the work of government are the marked factors to effect tourism risk sense.