试论城市旅游发展的“涨落效应”

A Study on Fluctuation Effects about Development of Urban and Regional Tourism

自组织是事物发展的根本特征,隐藏着事物发展不可逆的内部规律。耗散自组织通过涨落作用推动动态非平衡的无序系统逐步在更高层次上形成相对平衡和有序,最终体现为一种具有"波"的属性的"涨落效应"。城市旅游系统具有典型的耗散性质,我国24个旅游中心城市反映了我国旅游再发展的内在规律。在中观尺度上,城市旅游发展具有"短程通讯"特征,长三角和珠三角具有较好发展态势,中部城市也具有一定同一性,而环渤海地区则需进一步加强区域协调。在宏观尺度上,我国旅游体现出"东和西兴、由中向边"的发展格局。东部旅游应向纵深化、高端化发展;西部内陆城市应加强基础建设与合作,借鉴东部先进经验和理念,稳步推进,最终实现宏观发展的"整体统筹、迭代推演"。

Self-organization is the primary nature of developmental course and it contains the unchangeable law on evolution of beings and systems.Dissipative Structure is a typical self-organization form,which functions with the course trooping forwards a comparatively more balanced or ordered situation from a less harmonious and junior circumstance on the open,far-from-ordered-and-balanced,dynamic structure and system by inner force,etc.,flustering power.The empirical result of flustering power can be termed fluctuation effects,which is characterized by the nature of waving.As an excellent dissipative structure,the urban tourism system is ruled by law of self-organizing inevitably.By the study of 24 key tourism cities of China,the correspondent developmental trend can be discerned and concluded,that is,（1） On the national level,tourism development of eastern China should be intensified while western accelerated,mid-China will strengthen itself and future benefit southern and northern China.（2） On the regional level,tourism of the near/neighboring or counterpart cities will be more harmonious and interrelated,among which the Yangtze Delta and Pearl-river Delta areas work optimistically,while the region bracing Bohai Sea should be promoted urgently.After all,fluctuation effects of tourism development must be drawn paramount attention and will result in wonderfully positive influences and outcomes.