安徽经济增长实证研究——基于对外开放和全要素生产率的分析

An Empirical Study on Anhui Economic Growth——Based on Foreign Opening and Total Factor Productivity

选取安徽省1990-2006年数据,以进口、出口和FDI作为对外开放的替代变量,并测算出全要素生产率数据,运用VAR模型分析了对外开放对全要素生产率的影响,同时实证检验了全要素生产率对经济增长的影响。得出的实证分析结论认为,安徽省对外开放对经济增长的影响是通过全要素生产率的增长传递的,但全要素生产率增长对经济增长产生的贡献较小,目前安徽省经济增长主要还是由要素投入增加引起的。

By selecting data from Province Anhui during 1990-2006,substituting variates：import trade,export trade and FDI for foreign opening ,and computing data of total factor productivity,we apply VAR model to analyze the influence of foreign opening upon total factor productivity and empirically test effect of total factor productivity on economic growth.We reach the conclusion that the influence of Province Anhui foreign opening on economic growth is delivered by the growth of total factor productivity,which contributes less on economic growth,and that nowadays Province Anhui economic growth is aroused mainly by rise of factor inputs.