粮食综合生产能力影响因素的系统分析及其政策建议

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Grain Production Capacity and Its Countermeasures

以系统科学视角从理论和实证角度将粮食综合生产能力分解为四个因子。通过主成分回归发现,水资源禀赋等自然生产力因子是影响粮食综合生产能力的基本因素;机械化率等技术生产力因子和耕作制度等管理生产力因子是主要促进因素;政策生产力因子影响不太显著,却是保障粮食综合生产能力的稳定因素。在目前生产条件下,稳定农业生产资料价格,改善农业基础条件,提高技术投入,选择良性生产模式,改革耕作制度,发展多熟制的间作套种,是今后提高粮食综合生产能力的主要方向。

This paper divided the factors that affect the grain production capacity into four parts based on systems science. Through the principal component regression this paper found that the natural resources factors, especially water resources, are the basic factors, and that mechanization such as technology and productivity of farming systems is also a main factor. However, the effect of policies on productivity is not significant, but the factor protects the stability of the grain production capacity. At present, the basic agricultural conditions should be improved and technological input be increased. Meanwhile, it is necessary to choose a healthy mode of production, reform farming systems, and develop inter - cropping.