利用时间序列模型预报电离层TEC

Predicting Ionospheric TEC with Time Series Model

以IGS(international GPS service)发布的电离层TEC(total electron content)资料为样本,用时间序列模型对全球的电离层总电子含量进行了预报。在时间序列预报模型中,不同的定阶方法导致不同的预报结果;实践证明本文使用的BIC定阶准则较好地实现了电离层总电子含量的预报。结果表明:对10d左右的预报时间段,时间序列模型的TEC计算结果相对精度高,预报相对精度优于60%的网格点数在总网格点数中所占百分比可达90%以上。

Taking the ionospheric TEC （total electron content） data released by IGS （international GPS service） for the sample, the ionospheric TEC for the whole world is predicted by using the time series model. Different order-determining rules can lead to different predicted results in the time series prediction model; It has been proved by test that the BIC order-determining rule used in this paper is suitable for realizing the TEC prediction. The results show that for the prediction period of ten days or so, the relative precision of the TEC calculated with the time series model is high and the gird nodes, for which the relative precision of the predicted TEC is better than 60%, amount to 90 percent of the total gird nodes.