房地产市场财富效应理论与实证研究

A Theoretical and Empirical Research on the Wealth Effect of Real Estate Market

在考虑通货膨胀的条件下,通过对我国1996—2007年房地产价格和居民消费的季度数据深入研究认为,随着我国经济增长和居民收入的增加,房地产财富对居民消费的影响不断增强,"预期"房地产财富效应不容忽视。房地产价格变化是居民消费增加的Granger原因,居民消费的增加亦是城镇居民可支配收入上升的Granger原因。无论从长期分析还是短期分析来看,我国房屋价格变动都会对居民消费带来财富效应。房地产价格的正向冲击将对居民消费产生正效应,导致居民消费增加。房地产市场财富效应通过作用于居民消费最终对宏观经济的运行产生影响。

In considering the conditions for inflation,the quarter data of China's real estate prices and consumer was researched in 1996-2007. The conclusion indicates that as China's economic growth and the resident's income increase,the impact of real estate wealth to consumer is enhancing continuously. Expected real estate wealth effect cannot be ignored. That real estate price changes is a Granger cause of the resident's income increase and the resident's income increase is also the Granger cause of the disposable income of urban residents increased. Regardless of short-run effect and long-run effect,China's housing price changes will bring wealth effect to the consumer. The positive impact of real estate prices will have a positive effect on the consumer,leading to consumer increase. By exerting influence on the consumer,the wealth effect of real estate market has an important impact on the macroeconomic operation.