基于状态信息的条件剩余寿命建模研究

Study on conditional residual life modeling based on condition information

根据监测到的设备状态信息预测其条件剩余寿命一直是基于状态维修中的关键问题。利用滤波理论,建立了基于状态信息的剩余寿命预测通用模型,并推导出采用极大似然估计法下参数估计的通式,使得在已知寿命服从其他任何分布形式时直接代入通式便可快速地得出其模型,从而预测其剩余寿命,省去了复杂繁琐的迭代过程。通过案例发现模型能够根据状态信息很好地预测其剩余寿命,并在不断更新状态信息的条件下越来越精确地预测其剩余寿命。

It is a critical problem to predict the conditional residual life of equipments based on inspected condition information. Based on filtering theory, a residual life predict model is set up according to condition information, and a general formula of parameter estimation is deduced using maximum likelihood estimation, thus, when the life distributing of an equipment is known, the model can be rapidly educed by taking the distribution into the formula is educed, and its residual life can be predicted without complex iterative process is predicted. The calculated result obtained from the case study show that the model can predict the residual life very well based on equipment condition information, and the model can become more and more accuracy to predict the residual life with the condition information updating.