维修用备件需求预测方法

Forecast Method for Maintenance Spare Parts Requirement

备件是装备使用和维修的重要物质基础,而备件预测则是制定保障计划的核心和关键,它将直接影响后续的筹措、分配、储存和调拨等各项工作。根据维修备件的来源及历史消耗特点,运用简单移动平均法修正历史数据,采用季节指数法预测维修备件消耗量,得出了结果。用GM(1,1)模型预测备件消耗量,验证了季节指数法。通过对两种预测方法的比较,归纳出不同的使用条件,能指导备件预测的进一步研究。

Spare parts are important material base of equipment usage and implement, while estimation of the spare parts is the core and key task of formulating support plan. Prediction of the spare parts has direct influence on following tasks such as preparation, assignment, storage and appropriation. According to history consumption features and source of maintenance spare parts, historical consumption data were corrected by use of simple moving average method. The maintenance consumption quantity of spare parts was forecasted by means of season exponent method, and the result was obtained. With the help of model of GM （ 1, 1）, consumption quantity of spare parts was predicted, and season exponent method was verified. Compared with two forecast methods, different using conditions were induced, and they can guide the further research of spare parts prediction.