农村医生数量变化特征和发展趋势的研究

The characteristics And Trends of Changing in the Number of Doctors in Rural China

文章利用1949－1996年全国统计资料，通过广义重对数模型的建立，分析了建国以来农村每千人口医生数的变化特征，拟合结果符合实际情况；在此基础上，预测了今后十四年内我国农村每千人口医生数量的发展趋势，为今后制定农村医生的配置标准提供参考；同时结合文[1]的研究结果，为确定农村医生数与卫技人员数的比值标准提供参考。文章还指出今后农村医生和卫技人员数量的增长速度均趋减缓，但医生数量的增长速度略高于卫技人员。

The paper analyzed the characteristics of the changing in the number of doctors in rural China by the generalized log-log model based on the data in the national health statisticed report from 1949 to 1996. The experimental values obtained from the fitting by the model are identical with the factual data. On the base, the authors forecasted the number of doctors per thousand people in rural China in the next 14 years. The results combined with the findings in Paper 1 can provided an important basis or reference for working out the staffing need standard of the number of doctors and the percentage of doctors among health workers in rural China. The paper showed that the increase speed of the number of doctors and total health workers will both slow down in rural China in the next 14 years,but the increase speed of doctors will be a little bit faster than that of health workers.