灰关联分析方法在NAM模型参数敏感性分析中的应用

Application of Grey Relation Analysis Method in Sensitivity of Parameters of NAM Hydrological Model

应用NAM模型对资水水系夫夷水流域新宁水文站的洪水过程进行模拟。利用灰色系统关联分析方法来研究NAM模型参数对模型模拟径流深、洪峰流量和峰现时间的影响。计算实例表明:浅层蓄水容量对NAM模型模拟径流深的影响较大,地表径流和壤中流汇流时间常数对NAM模型模拟径流深的影响较小;地表径流系数、地表径流和壤中流汇流时间常数对NAM模型模拟洪峰流量的影响较大,壤中流出流时间对NAM模型模拟洪峰流量的影响较小;地表径流和壤中流汇流时间常数对NAM模型模拟峰现时间的影响较大。

The NAM hydrological model was used to simulate the flood processes at the Xinning Hydrological Station, Zishui River. The results show that the NAM model could obtain higher accuracy. The effect of the parameters of the NAM hydrological model on the depth of runoff volume, flood peak discharge and flood peak ap- pearance time was researched by GRA（grey relation analysis）. The result obtained from an illustration indicates as follows： The influence of a shallow storage capacity on the simulated runoff depth by NAM model is greater, and that of the influx time constant for surface runoff and flow in soil on simulated runoff depth by NAM Model less. The effect of surface runoff coefficient and the influx time constant for surface runoff and flow in soil on simulated peak flood discharge by NAM model is larger, and that of the outflow time on simulated peak flow minor. The impact of the influx time constant for surface runoff arid flow in soil on simulated peak appearance time is greater.