试论台湾与东南亚关系的现实基础、影响因素及发展路径

The Realistic Basis,Influencing Factors,and the Development Route of Taiwan-Southeast Asia Relations

台湾和东南亚的关系与两岸关系及大陆—台湾—东南亚国家三方关系的互动有着密切联系。随着大陆实力的增强,因两岸关系对立而产生的东南亚国家不得不在大陆与台湾之间进行选择的政治难题已经消失,以中国—东盟自由贸易区建设为先导的东亚区域经济一体化进程更从客观上弱化了台湾单独与东南亚国家发展关系的政策效应。由于以"东盟+n"方式参与东亚区域经济合作将导致两岸关系的恶化和多方关系的复杂化,因此,台湾直接参与已经开始实施的"东盟+中国"合作框架将更有利于台湾的发展以及与此相关各方关系的协调。

The Relation between Taiwan and Southeast Asia has an intimate connection with Cross-strait relations, and there are close interactions among China's Mainland, Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries. In recent years, China's Mainland＇ rise solves the political problem for Southeast Asian countries of choosing between China's Mainland and Taiwan. After the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, regional economic integration in East Asia objectively weakened Taiwan＇s political efforts of developing relationship with Southeast Asian countries by itself. If Taiwan takes part in regional economic integration in East Asia with the mode of ＂ASEAN ＋ n＂, it will lead to a weakened cross-strait relations and much complicated multilateral relations. Therefore, the participation of Taiwan in ＂ASENA ＋ China＂ cooperation framework will be a direct help for Taiwan＇s development, and also for the coordination among related countries and areas.