美国次贷危机对中国台湾房地产证券化的潜在影响分析

Analysis of the Potential Influence of US Subprime Lending Crisis on Real Estate Securitization in Taiwan

2007年以来,美国次贷危机席卷世界,它给全球房地产市场和金融市场带来了一系列的连锁灾难。这场危机,对于对外依存度很高的中国台湾而言,是一场严峻的考验。文中试从美国次贷危机入手,将中国台湾地区(以下简称"台湾地区")的房地产证券化和美国的房地产证券化的关系进行探讨,指出台湾地区目前的房地产证券化在次贷危机背景下所凸显的潜在危机因素,以及得出了台湾地区房地产证券化在美国次贷危机下可能使通货膨胀更加严重,甚至是二者进入恶性循环螺旋。最后总结美国次贷危机对台湾地区房地产证券化的启示并提出建立弹性房地产证券化体系和认真对待专业资产评级公司对证券的评级等政策建议。

Since 2007, subprime lending crisis has been sweeping across the world. It has caused a series of disasters to the real estate market and the financial market all over the world. This crisis is a very severe test to Taiwan, which has a high degree of dependency on foreign trade. Starting from the current subprime lending crisis in USA, this article makes a comparison of real estate securitization in Taiwan in contrast with that in USA. On the basis of the analysis on the history and current situation of real estate securitization in Taiwai, it points out that there are lots of potential risk factors in Taiwan＇s current real estate market. In particular, Taiwan Region＇s real estate securitization will make Taiwan＇s inflation more serious under subprime lending crisis and even result in a vicious circle between them. Finally, this paper summarizes some enlightenments about the influence of subprime lending crisis in USA on Taiwan Region＇s real estate securitization and proposes some policy options, such as the establishment of a flexible system of real estate securitization and a sober understanding the rating made by specialized property rating companies.