银根紧缩与信贷资源配置

Between Short Money Supply and the Allocation of Credit Resources

我们根据2004～2007年间中国上市公司的季度数据,考察货币紧缩政策如何影响信贷资源配置结构和效率。我们发现,银根宽松阶段,高成长行业更有可能得到信贷融资,然而,在银根紧缩阶段,企业信贷融资额大幅下降,并且这种融资减少主要发生在高成长行业。进一步分析表明,银根紧缩阶段的"信贷融资—投资机会反应系数"的下降,并非源于高成长行业未来投资机会或外部融资需求的下降,这在一定程度上表明货币紧缩政策降低了信贷资金的配置效率。我们进而发现,在银根紧缩阶段,信贷资金向国有企业和劳动密集型企业倾斜,导致了信贷融资—投资机会反应系数的下降。本文分析表明,在银根紧缩阶段,信贷资源配置更有可能服从于照顾国有企业、稳定就业等目标,而非经济效率目标。

Based on the data of the seasons of 2004-to 2007 on China’s listed companies, we have probed into how the policy for short money supply impact on the structure and efficiency of the allocation of credit resources. We have found that, at the stage of easy money, the lines of business with speedy growth (LOBWSG) were more likely to obtain financing by means of credit, and that, however, at the period of tight money, the amount of enterprises’ financing by credit plunged, which fact occurred mainly in LOBWSG. Our further analysis indicates that the drop of 'reaction coefficient of credit financing-investment opportunity (RCOCFIO)' did not originate in the decrease of future investment opportunities of LOBWSG or in the drop on the demand of external financing, which shows, to some extent, that the policy for tight money lowered the efficiency of the allocation of credit fund. We have further discovered that, at the period of tight money, the favor given to the state-owned enterprises and labor-intensive firms in terms of credit fund resulted in the fall of RCOCFIO. The analyses given by this article demonstrates that, at the period of tight money, the allocation of credit resources is more likely to accomplish the object of giving more consideration to state-owned enterprises and to stabilizing employment, but not to aim at raising economic effectiveness.