情报失察——西方情报研究的重要课题及其对我们的启示

Intelligence Failure——An Important Topic in Western Intelligence Studies and Its Inspirations to its Practices in China

情报失察曾过多地被归诸于高层决策者们"不利用情报"或"不相信情报",实际上,对信息的过分过滤和诠释也造成了对危机信号的忽略和误判。因此,由于人的错误而非信息系统是造成情报失察的主因。探索情报分析人员和决策者的关系,分析预警障碍、认知失调、情报政治化、群组思考等问题,认为应从认知学理论和情报文化的角度进行研究,以使情报分析更具洞察性。

Intelligence failures have more generally been attributed to ‘failure to use＇ or ‘failure to believe＇ on the part of senior decision makers. This paper points out that excessive filtration and interpretation also cause ignorance or misinterpretations of crisis signals. Thus, human errors, not just the information system, lead to the failures. It explores the relationship between intelligence analysts and policy makers, follows by a wider concerns of obstacles to accurate and timely warning, the theories of cognitive dissonance politicization of intelligence, limits of the group think, etc. , and concludes that analyses could be enhanced with insights from cognitive theory and intelligence culture.