人民币汇率对中国进口价格的传递效应分析

Study on the Pass-through Effect of RMB Exchange Rate on Import Prices of China

本文利用1994-2007年季度数据,就人民币名义有效汇率对中国进口价格水平的传递效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,短期内,尽管人民币名义有效汇率的波动对进口价格的传递是不完全的,但传递效应仍然相当高,短期传递系数约为0.63。长期内,人民币名义有效汇率的波动对进口价格则具有完全的传递效应,长期汇率传递系数约为1。这一结果意味着中国进口价格对人民币名义有效汇率波动的响应程度较高、且速度较快,汇率波动会很快地传递到进口商品的价格之中。

This paper conducts an empirical study on the pass-through effects of RMB exchange rates on China＇s import price by seasonal data from 1994 to 2007. The empirical results show that in short term the pass-through rate of RMB nominal effective exchange rate on China＇s import price 0.63 is not complete but still very high. The long term pass -through rate is nearly 1, so there＇s a complete pass-through effect in the long run. These results mean that the fluctuation of RMB nominal effective exchange rates will quickly pass through into the prices of China＇s import goods.