中国股票市场发展与经济增长的实证研究

Econometrics tests on the relationship between stock market and economic growth in China

本文运用Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法,通过分析我国近年来宏观数据及股市规模、流动性和波动性的季度数据,对中国股票市场发展与经济增长的关系进行了计量学检验。得出的结论是:总体上,中国股票市场和经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,经济增长对股市的发展具有一定促进作用,但股票市场对经济增长的作用十分有限。

This paper makes an empirical research on the causality between the development of stock markets and the economic growth in China, by using some econometrics such as Johansen Co-integration Test, Granger Causality Test. The result shows, there is long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of stock market and the economic growth in China, and the economic growth could promote the stock market, but the stock market has limited effect on the economic growth.