金融海啸与中国经济

The Financial Tsunami and China's Economy

这次金融海啸的性质是整个世界金融体系的危机。世界金融体系之所以会出现这样的危机,有以下三个层次的原因:(1)1970年代初期"布雷顿森林体系"崩溃后的世界货币体系由不受约束的美元所主导;(2)美国经济储蓄率过低,向全世界举债来支持高消费水平;(3)美联储一直采取扩张性的货币政策和松弛的金融监管支持美国资本市场的繁荣。这就使美国经济,进而使世界金融体系中充满了虚拟财富的泡沫。局部泡沫的爆破,会触发整个体系的危机。30年的改革开放,使中国深深地融入了全球化的进程。在前20年中,中国有效利用了发达国家,特别是美国储蓄不足的特点,采取出口导向政策,用大量的出口需求弥补由粗放发展方式造成的消费需求不足,实现了长时期的高速增长。然而,近年来出口导向政策未能及时作出调整,使外汇存底大量增加,而外汇占款大量增加和流动性泛滥使得中国金融体系中也出现了大量泡沫。由于外部和内部两个方面的原因,使得这场世界金融海啸主要在以下两方面对中国经济形成冲击:(1)金融海啸的冲击促使中国金融体系中的泡沫破灭,虚拟资产的消失造成流通性短缺和某些企业资金链断裂;(2)国际市场购买力下降造成中国出口订单的减少,使企业倒闭和失业增加的危险增大。对此,应该采取有效的措施来加以应对。在国际上,应与各国通力协作,同舟共济,共克时艰;同时通过共同的努力,构建新的世界金融体系。在国内方面,虽然短期政策的着力点可以放在保持宏观经济的稳定和帮助企业、特别是中小企业克服困难上,但是根本解决之道还是要通过进一步的改革,转变经济发展方式,实现产业效率的提升。

By nature, the present financial tsunami is the crisis for the whole world＇s financial system, which is due to the following three reasons ： （ 1 ） the American dollars freeing from regulation cannot guide the international monetary system since the falling-apart of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s; （2） the American economic savings are so low that the high consumption level is kept by way of borrowing from the whole world; （3） the Fed has always been adopted the expansionary monetary policy and flabby financial supervision to support the prosper of the American capital market. As for China, because of 30 years of the reform and opening to the world, it melts deeply into the process of globalization. The first 20 years witness a rapid, long-term growth. But, in recent years, there appear a lot of bubbles in Chinag financial system because of some objective factors. And there are two reasons why the present financial tsunami gives an impact on China＇s economy： （ 1 ） the financial tsunami causes the deflation of the bubbles in China＇s financial system and the disappearance of the virtual assets makes the liquidity in short supply as well as the fund chains break-down of some enterprises; （2） the decline of the international purchasing power makes China＇s export orders cut down and, accordingly, the danger of enterprises＇ bankruptcy and unemployment enlarge. Therefore, on the one hand, an international co-operation should be carried out so as to construct a new system of the world＇s finance; and on the other hand, for a short period of time, more attention should be paid to the stabilization of macroeconomy and to the problem of the small or middle enterprises. But, the most important is, by further reform, transforming the mode of economic development and enhancing the industrial efficiency.