发展战略与汇率制度选择

Development Strategy and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime:Chinese choice of exchange rate regime

一般而言,一国汇率制度的选择会受该国经济和政治因素的影响,而发展中国家在选择汇率制度时还会受到其发展战略的影响。本文考察了发展战略与汇率制度选择之间的关系,发现实施赶超战略和进口替代战略的国家会选择固定汇率制度并高估本币币值,甚至采用多元汇率制度;实施出口导向战略的国家会选择固定汇率或者钉住汇率制度,一般钉住美元且波幅很小,并低估本币币值;而只有真正实施比较优势战略的国家才选择浮动汇率制度,政府很少干预汇率的变化。现阶段,我国要坚定地实施有管理的浮动汇率,并适当控制人民币的升值速度。

In general, the state＇ s choice of exchange rate regime will be affected by the country＇ s economic and political factors, while the developing countries in the choice of exchange rate regime will be also affected by its development strategy, This article investigates the relationship between development strategy and the choice of exchange rate regime, finds that countries chose catch - up strategy and import - substituted strategy will choose fixed exchange rate regime and overvalue it＇ s currency, or even choose polybasic exchange rate regime; countries chose export - oriented strategy will choose fixed or pegged exchange rate regime, pegged to the dollar and the volatility is very small generally, and undervalue it＇ s currency; only the countries chose really comparative advantage will choose floating exchange rate regime, the Government does not intervene the movements of exchange rate almost. At this stage, China must firmly implement managed - floating exchange rate re,me, and properly control the speed of the appreciation of the RMB.