东西部经济增长决定因素和扩散与回流的比较研究

Analysis on the Growth Poles and Spillovers in the Western and Eastern China

本文基于增长极理论构建了空间计量模型对实施西部大开发以来第一个五年的西部和东部经济增长效益和溢出作用进行比较研究。统计模型估计显示,固定资产的增长是非农业经济增长的主要决定因素,但是西部资产边际产出只及东部的2/3;FDI的效益远高于国内资本,且西进的FDI比在东部有更高的边际效益;西部与东部最大的差别源于劳动力边际效益的巨大差距;西部和东部经济都有显著的集聚倾向。对增长外溢作用的检验表明西部中心城市对县级经济有回流作用,西部中心城市和县级经济都受到东部中心城市的扩散作用,而东部中心城市增长虽比西部快,但是增速却因西部中心城市的增长而相对减缓。本文最后讨论了研究结果的若干政策意义。

Based on the theory of growth poles, this paper analyzes the efficiencies of the non-agricultural economic growth and spillovers in the western and eastern regions in the first five years of western development. The empirical results indicate that domestic capital investment is the primary determinant of economic growth, but the marginal product in the western region is only 2/3 of that in the eastern region; FDI is much more productive than domestic capital, but FDI is more productive in the west than in the east; the most dramatic difference between the two regions is in labor productivity. The results also reveal that the central cities in the west have backwash effects, whereas both central cities and rural counties in the western region receive positive spread effects from eastern region.