全球M2/GDP水平和趋势探讨

Empirical Analysis of the Level,Trend and Underlying Causes of Global M2/GDP

本文以1971年作为信用货币制度确立的重要时点,对全球及不同经济发展水平国家的M2/GDP水平和趋势进行了分析,发现M2/GDP>1不只是中国独有的现象,世界平均M2/GDP持续上升。截至目前,在信用货币制度下并没有任何一个国家的M2/GDP呈现完整的"倒U"型,反而有更多的国家出现M2>GDP的现象,且差距会增大,即呈现喇叭口趋势。本文重点探讨了信用货币制度的内在规律:货币数量无限增长与实体经济运行所需货币量相对减少,这是货币数量的绝对增长超越经济规模的根本原因。信用货币制度的内在规律必然导致数额庞大的货币资产游离于实体经济之外,成为全球"流动性过剩"的根源,而现行的各国央行调控货币供求关系的工具最终会加速货币的繁衍,通胀和滞胀己成为经济运行中的常见现象,经济危机的形态也由生产过剩的危机演变为金融危机和货币危机。基于信用货币制度的内在规律,我们对在不改变信用货币制度前提下任何试图取代美元的国际货币新体系的努力持谨慎态度。

A Taking 1971 as a critical juncture during the establishment of credit currency system, this paper analyzes the level and trend of global M2/GDP, as well as countries with different economic development. The results demonstrated that M2/GDP〉I is not a unique phenomenon that is confined to China, actually the world＇s average M2/ GDP is continually rising. At the same time, the empirical analysis showed that no country＇s M2/GDP had a complete inverted-U shape under the credit currency system up to now. Instead, there are more countries with larger M2 than the GDP, and the gap between M2 and GDP is continuously increasing. This article focuses on the intrinsic law of credit currency system. Unlimited growth of currency is the root causing the amount of credit currency to grow more rapidly than the economic scale. The intrinsic law of credit currency system is bound to lead a huge amount of monetary assets to drift away from the real economy, thus forming liquidity surplus. Current central banks＂ control will eventually speed up the proliferation of currency. Stagflation and imqation has become the main common phenomenon in economic operation, and the form of the economic crisis has transferred from over-production crisis into financial crisis and currency crisis. Any attempt to replace the U.S. currency system in the premise of the intrinsic law of credit currency system should be cautious.