用“车市波动分析法”观察2008—2009年中国车市走向

Introduction of Analysis Methodology of Auto Market Fluctuation

笔者自1993年以来跟踪观察并研究中国汽车市场发展规律，提出并应用了“新的车市研究方法体系——车市波动分析法”。从2000年5月起，笔者先后在《中国汽车报》《上海汽车报》《经济日报》《商用汽车》等报刊上发表文章，超前预告改革开放以来车市的“第5次扩张期”即将到来；2002年在《上海汽车报》《中国经济时报》《商用汽车》发表文章预测中国车市进入“扩张高峰期”（结果2002年同比增长38．49％）；

The author had been observing and studying the law of development of China's auto market since 1993,and created and put in use a new analytical methodology——Analysis Methodology of Auto Market Fluctuation.Based on the results gained by this methodology,it is believed that China's auto industry had encountered the 5th wave of'shrinking period'in 2008,and will move onto the'valley floor'in 2009.