关于次贷危机演进的多视角实证分析

A multi-perspective empirical analysis of the evolution of subprime crisis

文章从次贷的违约、发放、证券化、余额、利率和企业这六重视角对2007以来次贷危机的演进作了实证分析。结论指出,2009年因次贷发放风险导致的违约压力将逐渐减轻,但因经济衰退带来的违约压力会继续加重;次贷违约率将进一步上升,但上升幅度呈收缩趋势;美联储大幅降息所催生的再融资高潮若未能有效带动房市,则房市可能陷入较长的低迷期。

An empirical study on the evolution of the subprime crisis since 2007 was conducted from the following six perspectives of payment default, loan issuing, securitization, balance, interest rate and corporation. The conclusion drawn is that the default pressure due to the risk of the subprime loan issuing will gradually diminish, in contrast to the mounting default pressure resulting from the economic downturn. The delinquency rates will be higher, but with a narrower growth band. The property market will plunge into a longer recession if the upsurge of refinancing spurred by the Fed＇s dramatic interest-rate cuts fails to effectively boost the property market.