基于GO法的特高压直流输电可靠性研究

Reliability analysis of ultra high voltage direct current system based on GO methodology

将一种新的可靠性分析方法——GO法引入到电力系统领域中,探讨了该方法在特高压直流输电系统可靠性分析中的应用.研究表明,基于状态概率公式推导的方法可以对系统进行较为准确的定量分析,但当系统中包含有共有信号时分析将变得十分复杂,具体表现为解析表达式的推导十分困难.针对该问题,探讨了一种新的定量计算方法,该方法基于状态组合方法展开,结合所开发的GO程序,可十分方便快捷地对系统进行精确的定量与定性分析.基于故障树法对同一系统的分析结果验证了GO法在特高压直流输电系统可靠性分析中的可用性与正确性.通过对两种方法特点的比较,阐明了GO法的特点和优势.

A new reliability assessment method, called the GO methodology, was introduced to the field of power system, and the reliability assessment of ultra high voltage direct current （UHVDC） system was conducted using the method. Results show that the system can be analyzed quantitatively and accurately based on the derivation of status probability formula. The method may become very complicated when the system contains shared signals, and it mainly displayed as the difficulty of derivation of analytical expressions. Then a new quantitative calculation method was discussed. The method was based on the idea of state combination. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis can be conveniently conducted combined with the developed GO software. The fault tree analysis method was used to analyze the same system, and the analysis results completely accorded with the GO methodology. The comparison between the two methods shows that the GO methodology outperforms the fault tree analysis method in many aspects.