流域决策的不确定性分析

Uncertainty analysis for decision-making in river basin management

针对流域决策中的不确定因素容易对流域工程或非工程措施的排序产生影响的问题,采用蒙特卡罗法中的拉丁超立方体抽样方法,根据流域决策中的各个不确定因素,并侧重数学模型不确定性对工程或非工程措施排序的影响,对马斯河5种可能措施下的风险模型进行分析,根据各个措施下净现值的均值和标准差,得出各措施的排序.从不确定性分析结果可以看出,模型的不确定性对流域决策的影响是非常大的,通常会令决策人员在不确定的情况下遭遇排序的困难.对流域的决策进行不确定分析,可增强决策的可靠性.

Uncertainty in river basin management have impacts on the ranking of river structural or non structural measures. Latin hypercuhe sampling of Monte Carlo method was used to propagate different un certainty sources into decision-making with focus on mathematical model uncertainty. Five potential measures were used and the impacts of various uncertainty sources on the ranking of the measures for the Meuse River in the Netherlands were investigated according to the mean value and standard deviation of net present value under different measures. Results show that the impacts are significant and decision makers will experience difficulty in ranking under uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis for decision-making in river basin management can provide more reliable scientific support.