各省非农就业的决定因素——基于面板数据的分析

Determinants of Non-agricultural Employment in the 31 Provinces of China

找出非农就业的决定因素是解决目前很多省份就业增长率和就业弹性不断降低的前提。本文采用面板数据分析方法，通过对1992年～2004年31个省份的数据分析，认为非农产出、产业结构和居民收入水平是目前决定各省非农就业的主要因素，并对计量结果的“反常”现象提出了自己的见解。

The key to solving the diminishing growth rate and the elasticity of employment in many provinces of China is to find out the determinants of non-agrlcuhural employment. This article uses the panel data to analyze the data of 31 provinces from 1992 to 2004 and concludes that the non-agricuhural output, industrial structure and residents＂ income are the major determinants of non-agricultural employment. Finally it puts forward the authors＂ personal opinion on the ＂abnormal＂ measurement result.