2009年国际原油市场分析与价格预测

International Crude Oil Market Analysis and Price Forecast in 2009

文章在回顾2008年国际油价走势的基础上,从石油市场供需、投机监管、金融危机和美元汇率等方面出发,对2009年国际石油市场的形势进行了分析判断。认为,2009年国际油价的大趋势应该是短期内继续低位震荡,之后油价有可能会出现回升,回升的时间和幅度将依赖于经济复苏的进程。乐观情况下,2009年全年平均油价将为73美元/桶;但是,如果全球经济持续低迷甚至进一步恶化,油价也可能长期在55美元/桶上下波动。

On the basis of reviewing the international crude oil price trend in 2008, this paper analyzes and makes judgment of the future trend of oil market in 2009 in terms of oil market supply and demand, speculation supervision and management, financial crisis and US dollar exchange rate etc. The results indicate that, in 2009, the large trend of international oil prices will basically maintain a low-level volatility within a short time, and then probably its re-rise will emerge, but the time and magnitude of the re-rise will depend on the process of world economy revitalization. Optimistically, according to our forecast, the average year price of 2009 may stand at 73 $/bbl; however, if global economy still keeps downturn even further deteriorates, oil prices also may fluctuate around 55 $/bbl in a long time.