情绪代理变量对投资者决策的影响

The Influences of Mood Proxy Variables to Investor Decision-making

情绪代理变量是指影响投资者对市场判断的非经济变量,主要包括天气、人体生物钟、月运周期、信念、社会事件、资本形象等。与蝴蝶效应类似,其影响在现实中往往被忽略了,但研究表明它们却会使股票市场出现巨大的波动。文章总结了两类情绪代理变量("错误归因"情绪变量和"启发式"情绪变量)对投资者决策产生影响的研究,这些研究结果可以使投资者从认识自己的情绪中获益,也可为我国决策层和监管层制定出合理的政策提供依据。

Mood proxy variables refer to the noneconomic variables which have an impact on investors＇ judgments to the asset market, such as weather, biorhythms, lunar phases, beliefs, social events, asset images etc. Being similar to ＂butterfly effect＂, investors always made ignorance to these impacts. However there were some researches showing that they had induced great fluctuations on the stock market. This article summarized the influences induced by two kinds of mood proxy variables （the ＂misattribute＂ variables and the ＂heuristic＂ variables） to investor decision-making. These researches not only brought benefits to investors from understanding the effects of the mood, but also provided evidences for the government to take polices and control the market.