推行“计划奶业” 促进中国奶业健康有序发展

"Planned Dairy Industry", promotes the quality development of China dairy industry

2008年的“三鹿婴幼儿奶粉”事件给整个中国奶业带来了前所未有的危机。为此政府密集出台了一系列调控措施，我们欣喜地看到，国家对奶业发展实行有计划的行政干预，将是这次奶粉事件催生的影响最深远、最有价值的变化。对此，本文作者就中国奶业今后的发展提出全新思路：推行“计划奶业”，促进中国奶业健康有序发展。

In 2008, the scandal of Sanlu poisoned milk has brought about an unprecedented crisis. Consequently, China released a series of measures. The planned administrative intervention conducted by government will be the most influencing and valuable change occur after the incident. Dairy industry has high risks Large investment, long life cycle and long industrial chain bring about high risks to dairy industry, such as natural risk, production risk, market risk, food safety risk and the risk of adjusting supply. How to balance between demand fluctuation and relatively stable raw milk supply is always an outstanding challenge to dairy manufacturers. With the risks of dairy industry increasing, preventing price of raw milk plunge or upsurge and consequent dramatic fluctuation of milk cow breeding industry are great challenges to governments. China dairy industry grows fast, but undeveloped After ten years' unusual growing, China dairy industry has achieved a remarkable increase in output. Manufacturing enterprises keep rapid expanding. In some areas, the output exceeds the supply of raw milk. That leads to competition in raw milk supply, some manufacturers even lower the requirements of raw milk quality to win this competition and consequently bring about possiblities of counterfeiting. Also, some local governments take cow breeding as a way to adjust agricultural industry and stimulate economy in rural area and thus propose unpractical developing objectives. Meanwhile, inexperienced workers surge into the industry. Therefore, breeding techniques, unit yield, efficiency, raw milk quality and farmers competence fail to follow the scale enlarging. In addition, the growth of consumption market also lags behind the output increase, which causes over competition, price war and profit shrinking. The impact is also expanded to breeding business. What is planned dairy industry? Harmonious development is the inherent demand of dairy industry. Although market mechanism is helpful for long-term development by integrating resources. But because of the lag of price function, inflexible supply, large investment and long life cycle, etc., we can not rely on market mechanism completely. Planned dairy industry means combining the domestic conditions with the experience of global dairy industry development, strengthening legislation and making national wide development plan, to enhance unit yield, quality and efficiency, strengthen market supervision and the effect of pricing, appropriately apply market mechanism, promote the harmonious development of dairy industry chain, achieve the balance between economic profit and society benefit, and change the conventional developing mode (quantiey increase) to new mode(quality and efficiency). Considering the relative shortage of resources, planned dairy industry mode is significant to China. However, administrative intervention does not mean planned dairy industry, while planned dairy industry mode involves planned administrative intervention. The new mode does not contradict with market mechanism, it actually combines market functions with planned economy. How to develop planned dairy industry in China? China dairy industry is still at the stage of integration, which needs market functions of resource allocation. Also, it requires intervention and regualtion in market access, market supervision, pricing, consumption and etc. In the aspect of raw milk production, it is necessary to make overall plan for output, establish system to select milk cow, make requirements of skills and work ethics for operators, establish reasonable pricing system, intervention price between breeding and manufacturing industries, apply protective price to guarantee farmers' benefits, set up a venture capital fund and insurance of cow breeding. The protective price should be combined with state milk powder reserve. In dairy manufacturing industry, related policies should be implemented effectively. Accordingly, unqualified producers shall lose out. Also, it is important to set up the alarm system of risks and balance supply by state milk powder reserve. To stimulate domestic demand, government should ad- just supply and stabilize fluctuations in market. Through programs like school milk project, more efficient distribution channel can be offered to dairy industry. At present, developing rural market is highly recommended to solve the current problem with dairy industry.