基于环境库兹尼茨曲线的协调度研究——以武汉市为例

ON COORDINATION DEGREE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE——A CASE STUDY OF WUHAN

经济发展与环境之间的关系已成为全世界特别是发展中国家越来越关心的问题，环境库兹尼茨曲线（EKC）即为描述它们之间关系的曲线。在阐述协调度与EKC曲线关系的基础上，建立了经济与环境协调度的信息熵模型，并引入BP网络对未来的协调度值进行预测，所得协调度值对应于EKC曲线进行分析，得到协调度的EKC曲线变化趋势，为区域经济决策提供了依据。以武汉市为研究对象，得到该区域1988~2006年经济环境协调度，并对2007-2020年的协调度值进行了预测，从协调度值与EKC曲线的量化关系得出经济与环境的EKC曲线发展状态和趋势。结果表明：武汉市的协调发展状况不容乐观，基本呈现协调度值较低、发展状态较差的状况；武汉市现正处于EKC曲线的转折顶点，逐渐向协调发展稳定期过渡的关键时期，因此武汉市政府需加强政策调控，保证稳步转型，达到稳定的协调发展状态。

The relationship between economic development and environment has become an important subject worldwide,especially in developing country. Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC curve） describes the relationship of them. A Shannon entropy model of the coordination degree of economy and environment was set up based on demonstrating the relationship of environment and economic development in this paper,and BP network was introduced to forecast the coordination degree value of the future, furthermore Environmental Kuznets Curve was verified from quantitative aspect. All these provided a basis for economic policy-making. Through the analysis of Wuhan City as a specific example, the coordination degree of economy and environment from 1988-2006 was gained,and the value from 2007-2020 estimated,then the trend of EKC curve was educed from quantitive relationship of coordination degree value and EKC curve. The results show that the coordinate development situation is not optimistic, the coordination degree value is low,and the development situation is poor. Wuhan City now is in a turning point vertex of EKC curve. The strengthened regulation and control policy must be implemented to ensure a steady transition so that a steady and coordinate development state can be achieved.